Report Predicts a Deficit of 4,700 Clinicians by 2025

This second report in a series of three Healthforce Center reports on primary care in California, unveils projections of a statewide primary care clinician shortfall in the next 15 years, with the most severe shortages in the Central Valley, Central Coast and Southern Border areas.

Key Findings

  • By 2030 demand for primary care clinicians in California to increase by 12% to 17% above the current demand.
  • Physician supply will decline between 2016 and 2030 in nearly every supply scenario estimated.
  • By 2030, NPs and PAs will comprise nearly half of California’s full-time equivalent (FTE) primary care clinicians. 

“California faces a looming shortage of primary care clinicians in the coming decades,” said Healthforce Research Faculty Member Janet Coffman. “If we continue along our current path, more and more Californians will need to visit the emergency room for conditions like asthma, ear infections or flu because they lack a primary care provider.”